Posts filed under 'US Options'
Nasdaq and STI index (see charts below) have both surged between 8% to 10% since the recent low registered on 17 March. A very decent gain in slightly more than two weeks’ time, or about 200% gain in annualized term. This is impressive under a bearish backdrop. For those who have attended my Investment Seminar on 22 Oct or have read my last blog on 25 March, I hope you have made some good profits.
However, I must warn all investors that the down-trend of the markets (be it Nasdaq or STI index) has not been broken. In short, as far as charts are concern, the down-trend is still intact! As I mentioned in my last blog, market would still be volatile in the next few months (please refer to point 5 in previous blog) and I urge investors to invest with great caution, especially in the next few weeks!
Even on the macro picture, this calls for more monitoring and careful analysis and of course utmost prudence in investments. Yes, the macro picture is likely to deteriorate, and this is going to continue to reflect in the employment data, then in the revenue and P&L of the corporate (especially in US). The only positive out of US, perhaps is the likelihood of both positive fiscal and monetary policy. We shall continue to see interest rates falling, albeit at a smaller drop, we shall continue to see more jobless numbers….. All these would be played out in the next few months. Things would be clearer (hopefully) by end of third quarter of this year.
While Asia is more immune to US sub-prime loan saga, Asia economies are not totally immune to slow down in US economies. As I said many times before, it is not a matter of Asia economies de-coupling from US or not (don’t ever waste time argue on this!). Common sense would tell you that the impact from US on Asia is diminishing, however, US economy still exerts considerable impact on Asia economies. It is like you are being shifted further from the epic center and whether you get impacted or not really depend on the degree of the earth quake. Hence, if US has a big economy earth quake (like current situation), we in Asia would surely feel the impact. Of course, if US is only catching a minor cold, then we are alright. Despite the big earth quake in US, Asia economies are still expecting some decent economic growth. However, we should know that investors never like slow growth, especially one that comes from a higher growth before. Remember what I said about earnings and multiple expansions during high growth period? We have to watch out on earnings and multiple contractions during the small or no growth period.
In summary, I urge investors to exercise great caution in the next few weeks! Oh yes, on commodities, I have urged investors to be caution in my previous blog. I am cautious on my short-term (three-six) view on commodities, but remain bullish on my long-term view. By the way, I have just come back from Japan last week, the cherry blossom and Ryokan onsen at Hakone are superb. Please visit Japan on the 1st week of April, it is simply marvellous! Cheers!
Note: From the overwhelming queries on my e-publication that I received, I wish to use this opportunity to say that while the samples used in the e-materials might be from certain market, the theory, framework, valuation model, portfolio spreadsheets, investment / trading /investrade strategies and so on are applicable in almost all stock markets in the world. Hence, whether you are from China, India, England, Singapore and so on, these investment educational materials on stocks and options shall be useful to you. As always, please do read the disclaimer too! One more point to share is that, the e-seminar on US Options is getting very popular. In fact, more buy orders are coming for this e-material. The choice is really obvious if you compare this e-seminar on US options to those that are available (through creative advertisement) via live seminars!
Master “The Essence of Stock Investment” and ride towards the journey of your financial freedom to be the “Master of Your Own Destiny”!Disclaimer: Investors are investing at your own risk. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the blog or from the main page of the website.
April 9th, 2008
NW Teong
Thank you very much for attending my seminar on 22 March 2008 organised by SGX. The response was indeed overwhelming and was much better than my expectation despite the bearish mood in the market as well as a holiday one day before the event. During the seminar, I have made some comments with regard to market view which I briefly listed down as follows:
1) I have said this in Oct 2007 that stock markets in 2008 will be more volatile than in 2007. I reiterated this again. I also said that there might be some true value to pick through out this year.
2) Base on some of the macro indicators that I monitored, stock markets are at or near the bottom already. Look at the 10-year Treasury yield (you can see this chart at yahoo finance, ^TNX), at 3.35% on 10 March, it was very near to its 5-year low of 3.1% registered on 9 June 2003. This tells me that the US Fed will have little room to play as far as interest rate policy is concern. Caution note: never just look at one indicator to make decision, one should learn to use multiple of indicators to reinforce one’s view!
3) Investors should monitor value stocks very closely now and with the intention to buy decisively whenever the target buy level is being breached. Do not panic if you have done your proper study and all indicators pointed to a screaming buy! For instance, I have always used Venture Corp as an example, I had urged investors to buy immediately when it was being bashed down to around S$7.50 on 3 of Jan 2008 (A rare chance indeed!). Please read my blog on Value Buy?
4) Short-term, commodities investment will pose very high risk. As explained in the seminar, investors are likely to lock in their huge positive gains in their commodities positions in view of huge losses in other asset classes, namely fixed income (most bonds, especially those linked to subprime loans), equities, properties (especially in US) and so on. It is all about asset allocation and portfolio restructuring that I mentioned in the seminar.
5) Markets would still be volatile in the next few months, tread with care please! Macro picture is vital at this stage.
6) Monitor China economy and stock markets closely, both before and after the Olympic game. It will have huge impact on regional markets.
In short, I urged all potential investors to continue to enrich your investment knowledge, to apply such knowledge on your investments. Always have a good system in place, be as conservative as you can (at least for beginners) and with a right mind set…..etc
I know I am a bit long-winded, but it is all for your own good! After the seminar on 22 Mar 08, many of you have emailed to enquire about my own investment seminar. I would like to use this opportunity to inform everyone that I do not conduct my own investment seminar more than two years ago. However, in order to still share my years of investment experience and knowledge, especially those proprietary worksheets such as valuation model, portfolio sheet and Master Rider System etc that I have created, I have converted all these into e-publications and are available via this web site: www.master-rider.com, including my investment seminars (both in English and Chinese). For those who are also interested in US option, the e-seminar on US option is considered the BEST value that you can ever get. Instead of paying thousands of dollars to attend other live seminars, getting the e-seminar (a fraction in terms of price) is surely a wise option to take. You would be surprised on the end result!
Master “The Essence of Stock Investment” and ride towards the journey of your financial freedom to be the “Master of Your Own Destiny”!Disclaimer: Investors are investing at your own risk. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the blog or from the main page of the website.
March 25th, 2008
NW Teong
For those who wish to catch me on this first and last investment seminar for 2008 organized by Singapore Stock Exchange (‘SGX’), you are most welcome to attend! For registration detail, please check with the staff of SGX or visit its website: www.sgx.com.
Once again, other than the investment knowledge, I shall share with you my macro view too in the above seminar. For those who have attended my investment seminar in Oct 2007, I am sure you could still recall some of the predictions that I made for 2008 that have come true. I predicted that crude oil is likely to exceed US$100 per barrel, stock markets will be more volatile in 2008 than in 2007. Chinese stocks will correct severely before the Olympic…etc.
Anyway, I have to clarify here that my job as an investor is not to make predictions, rather we make educated and logical deductions of the near and long term outcome. My wish is that after attending my seminar, as well as acquired further investment knowledge either from my website (www.master-rider.com) or other sources, you will be able to make good logical deduction. As I said many times before, once you have mastered the skill on analyzing the macro picture and hence ride on it, you would become a great investor. Of course, you must also have the right attributes of a great investor lah! While I try not to advertise my own e-publication (via this web site) through my personal blog, I cannot help but to share with you this great news that, there are constant stream of investors purchasing them from my website EVERY MONTH! Congratulations to those that have purchased, these e-publications are really great value for money. For instance, I really don’t understand those who paid few thousands to acquire some basic knowledge and trading strategies on US options, one could easily acquired those knowledge at a fraction of the cost via my e-materials. The key reason, in my opinion is that I do not advertise them. Most investors are attracted by the huge profits advertised by these live seminars. Alas, don’t they know that if it is so easy to make huge profits day in and day out, the seminar presenters would not have time to teach as they would be very busy raking in tons of money (investors, especially budding investors please wake up and don’t dream of huge profits in a short time!).
As mentioned in my last blog, this current volatility will play out in the next few months. Monitor closely and you would have some great opportunities for positioning.
Master “The Essence of Stock Investment” and ride towards the journey of your financial freedom to be the “Master of Your Own Destiny”!Disclaimer: Investors are investing at your own risk. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the blog or from the main page of the website.
March 10th, 2008
NW Teong
Will US Fed cut its Fed funds rate in its coming FOMC meeting this week? This is the question investors from all over the world are asking. However, it seems that most investors are betting that the Fed will cut by another 25 basis points. Is this a done deal or the US Fed has other idea? In fact, the US Fed is at the catch 22 situation at the moment. On one hand, the weak economy and the housing loan problem call for a cut in interest rates. On the other hand, a record high in commodity price, especially the historical high crude oil price as well as a weak dollar necessitate a hike or at least no change in interest rates. As we know that high commodity price will flame inflationary pressure. In short, US Fed is in a bind right now where the US economy is slowing and yet there is a potential threat of inflationary pressure.
Under normal circumstances, one will not face inflationary pressure if the economy is slowing down. However, the case for US is unique in the sense that, while its economy is slowing down, the commodity price is sky rocketed due to strong demand from rest of the world, especially China and India. A weak dollar, indeed adds fire to fuel on the phenomenal rise in commodity price.
It seems that there are only two scenarios, that is cut or no cut. If Fed cuts the Fed fund rates by another 25 basis points, the trend for all asset classes will continue (until they reach some breaking points). In other words, we will continue to see record breaking for regional stock markets in Asia Pacific region in the remaining months of this year, also record prices for most commodities and crude oil is likely to test US$100 per barrel soon. Please note that I am not saying the current crude oil price represents the natural equilibrium price between the real supply and demand. Current crude price level not just reflects the real supply and demand, it also reflects the tense situation in the Middle East as well as the huge positions by speculators.
If there is no interest rates cut, then the stock markets may consolidate for a few days as investors who bought the markets in anticipation of a cut will be disappointed. However, regional stock markets in Asia should still resume their uptrend after the initial “disappointment” over US markets. In short, if there is no interest cut, regional markets may take some time to consolidate and are likely to resume their uptrend in the next two months.
My concluding remark is I am still bullish for stocks, especially regional markets in Asia in the next two months barring unforeseen circumstances. Of course, markets are getting more volatile due to events such as FOMC meeting, earnings reporting period and so on. More importantly, we could be on the last leg of the bull which started since early 2003. The duration of this last leg could be shortened or extended due to a host of factors. One obvious factor is the US Fed fund rates. As mentioned before in my earlier blogs, continue to monitor those factors that are likely to short-circuit the markets!
By the way, I have promised to share with you some of the photographs taken during my recent seminar organized by the Singapore Stock Exchange on 27 Oct 2007. I must apologise that the photos are not very well taken.
However, the important thing is that I am able to share my investment knowledge and experience with many enthusiastic and keen investors. Many of these participants have visited my investment education website:www.master-rider.com in the last few days and have also purchased the e-publications such as the e-book, e-seminars, investment spreadsheets from the website. To be very frank, all these e-publications are really very good value for money. FYI, I have never advertised them in any way except to introduce them during the seminars. Just like my website which enjoys more than 1,000 hits per day, these e-publications are simply selling by themselves through words of mouth.
For instance, I introduce the e-seminar on “Wealth Creation via US Options” to some of them. This e-seminar is content rich but cost peanut as compared to those live seminars which normally cost S$3000 to S$8000 per pax. As I said in my website, my sincere objective is to share all my investment knowledge and experience with as many people as possible. I did not offer free down load of these e-publications as freebies are always subject to abuse. From my point of view, the economic value of the e-publications is at least ten times higher than the prices. Whether to have these e-publications or not, whether to attend very expensive seminars or not, and whether to master the investment knowledge yourself (hence benefit for the rest of your life) or rely on others, the choice is entirely yours. The key message is that if you can grasp the investment knowledge that I am trying to share with you via those e-publications, the benefits are tremendous. The very least is that you would avoid losing money big time! Cheers!
Master “The Essence of Stock Investment” and ride towards the journey of your financial freedom to be the “Master of Your Own Destiny”!
Disclaimer: Investors are investing at your own risk. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the blog or from the main page of the website.
October 30th, 2007
NW Teong
