Master Rider Blog

Market Outlook

October 29th, 2007 NW Teong

Regional stock markets are being played out as expected. Barring unforeseen events, we will continue to see bull run in regional markets, especially in Asia pacific region ex-Japan. We will continue to see bull run in commodities, crude oil is likely to break new record and US$100 is not too far away. I reckon we may even see it (crude oil at US$100 per barrel) happens this year! Of course, US$ will continue to weaken and we will continue see record high in Euro versus US$.  In short, this bullish tone aided by huge liquidity inflow should continue till at least end of the year.

Hong Kong market is already catching fire and the Hang Seng Index has easily cruised pass 30,000 points. As mentioned before, Hong Kong market is unique. Besides a key beneficiary of this huge liquidity inflow, it is also the potential beneficiary of domestic funds in China seeking investments in overseas markets. As for Singapore market, the surge will not be as spectacular as Hong Kong market but it should be on the up trend too. However, the recent policy regarding deferred payment in the real estate sector will act as a dampener in the stock market, especially in the real estate sector. We shall closely monitor the reaction in the market whether this latest measure has tilted the balance in the supply-demand situation in Singapore. My view is that there will be a short term damp in the property sector but still bullish on a longer term. Having said that, we need to watch out for more measures (if any) from the government.

The very important date to watch, of course is the FOMC meeting on 31 Oct. This should set the tone for the rest of the year! My take is that Fed would cut another 25 basis points in this coming FOMC meeting (well I may be wrong on this). If this happens, the party due to liquidity driven bull run should continue all the way till end of the year barring unforeseen circumstances (please also read my blog titled “Big Scare” on 23 Oct).

By the way, I have a fantastic response (about 138 participants) for my investment seminar on “A Beginner’s Guide on Effective Portfolio Management” on 27 Oct organized by Stock Exchange of Singapore. We have so many enthusiastic participants that are so eager to learn more about investment and I have shared my investment knowledge and experience unreservedly with them. I shall share some photos (taken by SGX staff) of this seminar in my blog the next time. I am also pleased to announce that for those who have purchased more than S$10 of my e-publication, you are automatically in my MRiders Club and you will be the first to receive important news and messages (e.g. My important market call on 17 Aug 2007) from me.

Cheers!

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Entry Filed under: Macro, Stocks, Singapore